Every time I think about Drew Smyly, I think of Cliff Curtis from Training Day.  That movie ended weird.  “Don’t bleed on my floor,” he says after almost shooting Ethan Hawke in the bathtub with a shotgun.  Pretty typical Saturday night if ya ask me, I dunno why Hawke got all bent out of shape and jumped on Denzel’s Monte Carlo.

But now when you say “Smyly,” it evokes feelings of waiver-wire hang-ups; where if he hasn’t been picked up in your league, you probably had him all queued up or someone else has.   Buried underneath the Jacob Turner hype, Drew Smyly has progressed through the Tigers system like a nor’easter, pitching only 127.2 total innings in the minors and earning a spot in the Major League rotation just after Opening Day.

Smyly hasn’t been just good.  He’s been historically good.  He’s the first pitcher since earned runs have been a recorded stat to allow two or fewer in his first six career starts.  Throw in a K per 9 and a 34:10 K:BB ratio and it defies all logic that Smyly was on so many waiver wires in 10-team leagues.  Sure, it’s early and, sure, pitching is more than plentiful, but Smyly was making a case he should be owned in all formats.

So I decided to watch his start at U.S. Cellular Field against the White Sox and compare his outings to see if he’s improving while settling into the Majors:

First Inning: Smyly is all smiles after three early runs of support in the top of the frame, and on a 1-1 pitch, Alejandro De Aza slaps one right at Smyly, and the lefty ducks out of the way and De Aza gets a leadoff single.  Gordon Beckham flies out lazily to center, but then on the first pitch to Adam Dunn, Dunn was sitting on the first pitch fastball and it’s launched for a two-run homer.  You could just tell Dunn couldn’t wait for that pitch and it was exactly where he wanted it – right down the middle.  There’s your two runs, Drew.  Konerko flies out to right and Rios does as well, and Smyly rebounds nicely.  Even though he gave up two runs, it’s still only an 11-pitch inning and Smyly still has a lead.

Second Inning: Smyly starts the second a bit rocky with two straight sliders that miss badly to fall behind 2-0 to A.J. Pierzynski.  Smyly works it back to 2-1 and Pierzynski flies out to deep left, one down.  1-0 to Alexei Ramirez and Sexy Alexei flies out to short.  Five outs and five fly ball outs.  Smyly throws a great 92-MPH fastball right on the outside corner to get ahead in the count for the first time this inning to Dayan Viciedo.  Where was that first pitch to Dunn?  On 1-1, Viciedo pops out weakly to second.  Six outs all via the fly ball.

Third Inning: With another two runs of support, Smyly is back out there with a 5-2 lead.  Smyly starts Brent Morel with a fantastic curveball Morel takes for a strike, 0-1.  On 0-2, Smyly barely misses a called strike 3 with a 93 MPH fastball… Not sure where that missed.  And back with the curveball and Morel grounds out for Smyly’s first out not through the air.  Smyly again dials up a curveball for strike one looking to De Aza.  On 2-2, Smyly goes with a slider that breaks all the way across the zone to the dirt and De Aza can’t hold his swing, giving Smyly his first K on the evening.  On 1-2, Beckham flares a 95 MPH fastball into foul territory that Brennan Boesch barely can’t catch.  But 95 from Smyly!  That’s some serious heat.  And then he goes with a slider biting in on Beckham’s hands that s swung on and missed for Smyly’s second straight 1-2-3 inning.  What a repertoire Smyly is showing.

Fourth Inning: This time, Smyly doesn’t give Dunn a first pitch strike or a fastball, throwing a slider for ball one.  Smyly gets the count back to 1-2 still utilizing only off-speed.  Dunn works it full then Smyly dials up a cutter that started inside and cut right into the heart of the plate that Dunn takes for Smyly’s third straight K.  On 1-1 to Konerko, Smyly gets a flare popup that lands in no man’s land in right for a fluke single.  Smyly had retired nine in a row until that unfortunate single.  On 0-1, Rios gets jammed and pops up to Prince Fielder.  And on 1-0 Pierzynski flies out weakly to center and it’s another pain free inning for Smyly.

Fifth Inning: On 0-1 to Ramirez, Alexei smokes one to left for a single.  Out comes Gerald Laird for a quick talk… Other than Dunn’s blast, that was the best-hit ball for the White Sox.  Smyly goes back with a curve ball taken for strike one by Viciedo.  Then Smyly goes with a HORRIBLE slider, 85 MPH and it hung on a tee right down the middle.  Crushed.  Home run for Viciedo, 393 feet to left.  Let’s hope Smyly can rebound as strongly as he did after Dunn’s blast.  On 2-2, Morel chases a slider out of the zone and pops it out to second for the first out.  0-1 to De Aza, and it’s grounded weakly right to Smyly, two down.  Smyly goes up 0-2 on Beckham, but a 2-2 slider barely misses inside then Smyly loses him for his first walk.  The first pitch to Adam Dunn is a cutter that looked identical to the fastball Dunn crushed, but it wrinkles and cuts down and Dunn swings over it and almost out of his shoes.  Great pitch.  On 1-2, Smyly goes to the slider and gets Dunn to swing and miss to once again, again rebounding nicely after giving up a two-run homer.  And somewhat surprisingly, after only 69 pitches, Leyland takes out Smyly.

Final Line:  ND  69 Pitches (45 Strikes) 5 Hits  1 Walk  4 Earned Runs  4 Ks

Final Analysis: All post game reports indicate Smyly is completely healthy, and Leyland lifted his young southpaw so early due to concerns of the fly balls Smyly was giving up.  I think it was just an anomaly as even after the game his GB/FB rate is 0.93.  I think Smyly had at least another good inning in him and may have done a better job protecting the lead (reliever Luke Putkonen subsequently gave up three runs while only getting one out in the bottom of the 6^th), as he had sat down 9 straight and 3 straight after giving up the two two-run homers.

This was a great start to breakdown.  You look at the stat line and say to yourself, “5 innings and 4 earned… the magic must be coming to an end.”  It sure as hell isn’t.  Smyly made only two mistakes all night that happened to be absolutely crushed.  Of course you can’t make mistakes at this level, but Smyly wasn’t exactly pounded throughout his start, allowing only the 5 hits (one of which was a fluke flare single by Konerko) and one walk.

From what I saw in his debut, Smyly has taken tremendous strides.  It appears he’s given up on his changeup (I didn’t think I saw a single one) and is instead using a solid cutter for the same effect (like he utilized on Dunn in the fifth).  Smyly was able to throw his curveball for strikes and his slider as an out pitch, and even hit 95 on the gun with his fastball, improving his velocity from his debut.  The only real knock on Smyly is he’s going to be lifted out of games very early, as is par for the course for young pitchers these days.  But with his stuff and that offense behind him, Smyly needs to be owned in all formats.  If he’s still on your wire or if you missed out on him and an owner has cut him after this apparent “bad” outing, go and grab him.

Fantasy Baseball Blog at Razzball.com

We're over a month into the season, not yet so far that it's time to bank your victories, but far enough that results are starting to matter, and you start to wonder which surprises are Jose Bautista … and which ones are Chris Shelton. Last week's article brought up a discussion of one of the players who has surprised me the most: David Freese. He's killing the ball right now, but I suggested he's a great sell candidate, because surprise players have this way of falling back to earth. Spirit of St. Louis thinks I'm wrong, and since he's been at or near the top of the standings all year, I have to confront a possibility I usually ignore: I might be wrong. 

It also got me thinking about some other surprise players, and wondering what kind of production we can expect going forward. By happy accident, they form a full infield. Joining third baseman Freese will be 1B/OF Bryan LaHair, second baseman Jose Altuve, and shortstop Derek Jeter. The four of them have disparate backgrounds, but all have been among the best at their positions so far and none were expected to do anything like that. I'm not saying they were expected to be bad, just not superstars. Let's go around the infield in the traditional order:

Bryan LaHair, 1B

LaHair is off to the monster of monster starts (it kills me to remember I dropped him in another league before he even played), batting .370/.460/.767, with a wOBA of .501. He's swatted seven homers and eight doubles. It's he like stole Albert Pujols's talent. To be fair, though, LaHair's got talent of his own. He won't be sustaining an ISO of .397, a HR/FB% of 38.6%, or a BABIP of .504 (.504!) all season long, but he's got a minor league record of (mostly) high BABIPs and ISOs. Last year he clubbed 38 homers for the Iowa Cubs; the two years before he hit at least 25.

LaHair wouldn't be the first Quad-A player to have a stellar month in the Majors only to lose the magic as the season wears on. He also wouldn't be the first 29-year-old to thrive when he finally gets a shot to prove himself. I wouldn't trade the farm to get him, but I wouldn't sell him unless I got a lot in return.

Jose Altuve, 2B

Altuve actually came into the year with high expectations. Sort of. When you're shorter than David Eckstein, expectations only go so high. Still, he was a well-rated prospect and scouts and fantasy projectors were cautiously optimistic about his chances. A decent average and a handful of steals seemed likely enough for a hitter that could be a low-end starting second baseman or a high-end middle infielder. What we've gotten is a .529 slugging percentage and a .346 batting average.

His BABIP is riding high at .386, but his speed and minor league numbers suggest he should be the type of player who sustains a high BABIP. Not that high, but high enough. Power's never been his strongest suit, but he maintained very high slugging percentages in two levels of minor league play last year, so he could keep it up. I think he'll be a solid contributor, but he's also probably at the high-water mark of his value. If you can trade him for a more established player who's underperforming, I wouldn't hesitate.

David Freese, 3B

Freese is another 29-year-old off to a great start. Technically, last year was his "first real chance," and he certainly proved himself, hitting 10 homers and batting .297 in 333 at-bats, not to mention his postseason heroics. The train that started last season just keeps on rolling, as he's already hit six bombs with a .315 batting average. I said last week that I think those numbers are unsustainable, and I haven't changed my mind. His HR-FB% jumped from a pretty high 16.7% last year to a crazy 26.1% this year. To put that number in context, while it isn't exactly up with LaHair or Matt Kemp, it would have led baseball last year.

Looking deeper into his minor league numbers though, I have to admit that the guy's got some power. His ISOs have usually been over .200 and his his lowest BABIP (in more than four games) was .345. I do think his average will drop, but something like last year's power output seems pretty reasonable projected over a full slate of plate appearances.

Derek Jeter, SS

The last player on this list, Jeter is sort of the "which one doesn't belong" of the group. He's one of the most famous athletes in the world. He'll be a first ballot-Hall of Famer. He's won more World Series than most franchises. And he wasn't exactly predicted to do well this year. Gone were the days of Jeter in the first few rounds; before the year he found himself closer to the end of the starting shortstop rankings than the beginning. On the heels of a disappointing season in which he batted .297 but hit just six homers, he already has five. At 38, it seemed entirely reasonable that his Hall of Fame career was about to hit a sharp slope on the decline curve.

A month in, and he's third in the Majors with a 33.3% HR/FB% and batting .390/.425/585. If there's bad news, it's that he's stolen just one base (see, he is getting old!). It goes without saying that Jeter won't continue to do this – but nobody would. Still, it seems to me that if this were the year that he falls completely apart, a month like this wouldn't have been possible. He seems like a good bet to finish among the top shortstops who weren't drafted in the first two rounds.

Somehow, the teams that drafted these players aren't in the Silver League's top two — instead they occupy spots three-five. (King Fish 2.0 got Freese and LaHair; no wonder he's surviving picking Pujols first overall.) The pack remains tight, by the way, with nine teams between 60 and 80 points. (Somehow, I'm one of them.) I don't expect any of these four players to change hands anytime soon; they're one of the hardest types of players to part with — players on a hot start who look like they won't have too far to fall when they come back to earth. If anything, you might want to try trading for one of these guys as soon as he has a bad week or two.

Fantasy Baseball – RotoAuthority.com

As more baseball managers employ the defensive shift, it could have a profound effect on some of your favorite fantasy baseball players.

The Increased Use of the Shift in Baseball and its Effects on Fantasy Baseball

Joe Maddon never has been a traditional manager.  Remember, this is the guy who once intentionally walked a man with the bases loaded!

SHIFTY: Mark Teixeira has seen a drop in batting average for the past three seasons, perhaps due in part to the increased use of defensive shifts against him.

But, this year, it’s getting a little nutty in over-achieving Tampa Bay.  The New York Times ran a story last week that detailed the shifting prowess of Maddon — a manager that has shifted his defense more than 150 times already this season, including 29 times in the opening series against the Yankees.  Maddon shifts his defense whether the other team is hitting righties or lefties.  He shifts his defense whether his team is playing the best teams in the American League, the Rangers or the Orioles, or the worst team, the Angels Twins.  Heck, he even shifts his defense when the opposing hitter is Ryan Raburn — a righty hitting .128 on the year.  The Rays have even figured they had enough data to warrant a shift against second year players like Kyle Seager of the Mariners and Eric Thames of the Blue Jays.  This is a team that just doesn’t shift against Big Papi.

And, its working.  The Rays are hitting .245 as team, yet battling for first place, as they always seem to do.  That’s despite the fact that the Red Sox and Yankees, at the bottom of the upside-down AL East, are hitting .275 and .277 respectively this year.  It may be a little more than a coincidence that the only team the Rays trail in the AL East are the Orioles — the team that has shifted the second most times thus far in 2012.  Those two teams are playing this weekend in the tectonic battle of the shifting American League East.

Come on, I hear you.  Its the Rays and Orioles pitching staffs that have got them to the top of the division often described as baseball’s most difficult.  Sure, that may be true, but you have to think that the shift and the pitching staff of a team whose #1 starter is Jake Arrietta (5.05 ERA last year) may be benefiting somewhat from their managers’ use of the now popular defensive shift.  Those two things must be intertwined at some point.

It must be working.  According to John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, the Rays shift, and other things its wacky manager does (not including dressing like pimps on road trips), has already saved the Rays 28 runs this season.  Its especially impressive when you consider saving 10 runs equals one more win, according to those Sabermetrics dudes.

Shifting Effects on Fantasy Stats of Players Like Mark Teixeira and Corey Hart

One player who has clearly had his fantasy baseball numbers hurt by the increasing use of the shift is Mark Teixeira.  Even Yankees’ hitting coach Kevin Long admits it:

“He’s just not real good at it,” Long said of Teixeira’s ability to hit the other way. “He doesn’t have a good feel for it.”  In fact, every time Texeira tried to go the other way against the Rays last year, he hit weak grounders to Evan Longoria whose job it was to cover the entire left side.

And, its not for lack of trying in having Long work with Teixeira, but “we’ve kind of hit a dead end with it,” said Long in referring to Texeira’s attempts to learn to go the other way with some power.

Corey Hart is another player who has felt the pain of the infield shift.  Houston put three infielders on the left side of the diamond against Hart this season, as reported by an article in Sports Illustrated.  Thats was dose of their own medicine, as the Brewers are the Rays of the National League — employing the shift more than any other team in the Senior Circuit.

“There’s still a lot more to be learned,” says Dewan, who estimates that there are 100 current major leaguers who should be shifted against but are ignored. “We still need more data. But there is evidence pointing to this as working.”

Tell that to the Rockies, Cardinals, and White Sox who have not shifted their defenses at all this year.  Some people just won’t learn.

Fantasy Baseball Dugout

Has anyone seen my ACL? I seem to have left it on the warning track at The K. If found, please ping us on Twitter at @closernews, where you'll find all the latest updates on closers. On with the updates …

Yankees
Bullpens are inherently volatile, this year seemingly more than ever. But the Yanks are the last team I expected to be writing about in this space based on Mariano Rivera's stubborn refusal to age or decline, kind of like Mickey Rourke except the exact opposite. Unfortunately, Mo finally proved mortal last week, going down as if he'd be been hit from the Texas School Book Depository while shagging batting-practice flies.

Rivera, of course, is (almost) definitely out for the season after undergoing surgery. We wish him a speedy recovery.

Luckily for the Yankees, they have two strong candidates to take the reins in Mo's stead: David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. Unluckily for fantasy owners, the Bombers have played it cool in naming one of them the undisputed closer, with manager Joe Girardi suggesting both will see save opps.

The Yankees haven't yet encountered a save chance since Mo went down, so there's little evidence from which we might infer anything, but I'm siding with popular opinion here in guessing that D-Rob will emerge as the go-to guy. He's the Closer Of The Future (COTF), and frankly, he's damn good — one of the best relievers in MLB right now. Soriano's ERA is tidy at the moment, and his bloated contract might have a say in the matter, but his strikeout and walk rates continue to trend in the wrong direction.

Bottom line: Robertson is the guy you want. You can add Sori, too, but I wouldn't break my neck if I were in a roster squeeze.

Dodgers
I'd finished this piece by the time the news broke Monday evening that Kenley Jansen had officially been named Dodgers closer. But I have to say, after touting Jansen for the past year or so, I didn't mind updating the piece.

For Jansen to finally claim the throne, incumbent Javy Guerra had to stumble, and at first glance, Guerra does in fact appear to have slumped badly after a hot start. But looking a little closer, Guerra seems to merely be the victim of some poor luck — not to mention his manager's inability to recognize said misfortune. There's a huge disparity between Guerra's 5.84 ERA and his 2.35 SIERA, mostly fueled by an insanely high .485 BABIP and very low 61.9% strand rate. Those numbers won't last.

But Guerra's loss is Jansen's gain, and with all due respect to Jav-Guer, it should be a lot of fun to watch Jansen in his new role, as he's capable of reeling off a season not unlike what Craig Kimbrel did a year ago. Guerra can be safely cut; hopefully, his owners didn't spend too much for him on Draft Day.

White Sox
We could probably break the Pale Hose's week-to-week closer dealings into a separate column, but alas, here were are, discussing a pretty surprising twist.

Chris Sale was a sometimes closer in 2011 before being moved to the rotation this season. He got off to a terrific start pitching every fifth day, so I assumed he'd be there for a good while, but he was apparently experiencing elbow tenderness. The South Siders responded by moving him back to 'pen, the dubious logic being that the barking elbow would subside with more appearances that require greater exertion but fewer pitches. I'm not sure it adds up, but we shall see.

Anyway, Sale becomes Chicago's closer, quite the sweet consolation prize for owners like myself who were enjoying his starting contributions. He should fare well as a closer, and perhaps his (re)appointment will finally furnish the White Sox with some ninth-inning stability. If everything breaks right for them, they might not be appearing here for a while.

I'm fine with cutting Matt Thornton (though I'll be holding onto him in my holds league), and Hector Santiago can be safely dropped. Consider keeping a close eye on fireballer Addison Reed, though, especially if Sale doesn't get off to a fast start (or is injured). Reed has come out strong, and he might be next up in this little carousel.

Marlins
Mercifully, the inevitable came to pass with Heath Bell's demotion from the closer's role this weekend. The Fish stuck with their big-money stopper as long as they could before finally conceding that he needed to get himself straightened out in some low-leverage sitches.

Ozzie Guillen tabbed Steve Cishek as Bell's temporary replacement, although that was put on hold by Hi-Ci's three-inning appearance on Friday night. So when a save opp cropped up on Sunday, and Cishek was unavailable, Oz called on Vinia Edward Mujica, who converted without much trouble. I like both pitchers, but since Guillen said Cishek would be his first choice, I'd prioritize them accordingly if either right-hander is still on your league's wire.

Meanwhile, Bell owners shouldn't cut bait. The Marlins will want to shoehorn him back into the role as soon as they can, if only to save face on their big offseason investment. I'm not especially optimistic he'll reclaim past glory, but stranger things have happened.

Quick-ish Hits
The Cubs' bullpen has dissolved so that the body can't even be properly identified with dentals. Kerry Wood is fresh off the DL and pitched poorly in his first outing back. Rafael Dolis and James Russell are not closer types, and Carlos Marmol may have gone completely off the rails. Shawn Camp is a darkhorse but isn't an ideal choice considering he was scooped up by the Cubs in early April after he was cut by the Mariners, a team whose bullpen isn't exactly the second coming of The Nasty Boys. This one could be frustrating all season.

Andrew Cashner flopped in his first outing since Huston Street was placed on the disabled list (albeit in a non-save situation). Cash Money's output has never seemed to catch up with his ridiculous raw stuff, so I'm not especially high on him. Luke Gregerson is not the same pitcher he was a couple years back and needs to be handled carefully, as he's injury prone. Brad Brach has a strong minor league track record, but that has not yet translated in his limited Major League experience. With Street sounding confident about a quick return, this might not be worth the trouble, either.

Fantasy Baseball – RotoAuthority.com

An action packed week is in store for ya.  I know you can barely contain yourselves. Every single team has 7 games this week. Add in the fact that the start of interleague play is upon us and it is like a delicious fantasy burrito.  I mean who doesn’t like a great burrito, besides vegetarians and really weird people who don’t eat burritos.  Okay, I’m back; I had to go out and get a burrito. Where was I…Ah yes, this week in fantasy baseball for two start starters.  Man, that is clunky.  Either way, lots of really good options this week, for both maximizing on starts with some of the lads I have listed, but also the streaming variety.  So be heady this week, and keep in mind that some of your lineup selections will be affected by the no DH factor. So enjoy the 210 games of baseball action this week and good luck.  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

5/16

Felipe Paulino vs Bal – Hunter

Chris Capuano @ SD – Richard

5/17

Jerome Williams vs CHW – Axelrod

Phil Hughes @ Tor – Hutchinson

5/18

Drew Pomeranz vs Sea – Beavan

Scott Diamond @ Mil – Estrada

TWO START OPTIONS:

Ryan Vogelsong ( Col vs. White, Oak vs Ross) I most definitely cannot sing, I can whistle though.  I would certainly not whistle a Vogel of anything, regardless of what it is.  Well, if it’s a huge piece of ice cream cake maybe.

Jeff Niemann (@Tor vs Morrow, Atl vs Delgado) If I were Jeff, I would most definitely have name my son Marcus.  Just for giggles.  Nothing gets kids to make friends faster then torment.

Bruce Chen (@Tex vs Lewis, Ari vs Miley) I wish he had a sidekick cat named Spot and posed as a janitor when he wasn’t pitching. To me that would make the world a better place.   Just don’t tell Sergeant Flint he is a drag.

Joe Blanton (Hou vs Harrell, Bos vs Lester) He should change his name to Blahton. He really isn’t blah, but compared to the other SP options in Philly he looks like vanilla in a sea of chocolate.

Ross Detwiler (SD vs Suppan, Bal vs Hammel) Looking at his home ERA makes me smile. You know what else makes me smile, not having to type out Tom Gorz-what’s-his-name’s name.

Anthony Bass (@Was vs Strasburg, Ana vs Santana) He would look a lot sexier if both of these were at home. That and the fact that he has to face St. Rasburg.  Oh, and if he sang “Take me to the river.”

Jason Vargas (@Bos vs Beckett, @Col vs Friedrich) One of those guys that looks better on your fantasy team, then everyone else realizes. I hope he changes teams midseason and pulls a Fister, literally not figuratively.

Wade Miley (@LAD vs Billingsley, @KC vs Chen) ERA is better away from Chase Field.  I wonder if it has to do with the ATM fees when you’re not banking at home.

Paul Maholm (@STL vs Lohse, CHW vs Peavy) If you like to roll the dice then roll Maholm for 4 straight wins, 1 earned run or less in each start.  Just don’t tell Marmol that he has a lead because he will want to blow on those dice.

Homer Bailey (@Atl vs Delgado, @NYY vs Nova) I couldn’t hate a fantasy player more than this guy. Okay,  I just got yelled at by my mom who said hate is a strong word.  I told her so is assisted living.

Christian Friedrich / Alex White (@SF – Vogelsong / Lincecum, Sea vs Millwood / Vargas) Combined they form the super tandem of White Christian.  Separate they may pull off the same feat.  I’m not hear to judge, there is a total separation between church and stats.

Fantasy Baseball Blog at Razzball.com

Hey, I’m Higgins and I’m going to be posting updates about our Fantasy Razzball leagues.  If you are not familiar with Fantasy Razzball, it is a league format where us truly masochistic fantasy baseballers try to build the worst fantasy baseball team possible. Full rules can be found here.

Now that we are over a month into the season it is time to not only look at the master standings and applaud those that have successfully been terrible, but also put on our 20/20 Hindsight Glasses and mock the bad performances in the land of bad performances.  Six leagues of ten were formed and thus far the king of the anti-champions is Pyramid Lake Cui-ui, coming out of Division 3 with 1,550 points.  Fueling his super futility is his drafting of three of the top six positions players on the player rater: Emilio Bonifacio (151 points, 1st round), Clint Barmes (148, 3rd), and Marlon Byrd (139, 15th). No slouch at being terrible on the mound either, he has milked five losses out of Ervin Santana after picking him up as a free agent and watching him become the #1 pitcher on the board with 119 points. Congratulations on your early lead and skills at assembling a terrible team, Pyramid Lake Cui-ui! If we find out you are Dayton Moore in disguise, you will be disqualified for cheating.

Looking back at draft day we can recognize some early breakthroughs and busts (other than Billy Butler’s). In 2011 Adam Dunn put up an incredible league-best 608 points, and as a result he was taken in the first round of every draft this year. Those hoping for a repeat from Big Donkey, complete with the all-important first base eligibility, have been pummeled with a net total of -1 points so far. Whoops!

Meanwhile Austin Jackson‘s 181 strikeouts and only 10 home runs in 2011 made him #3 on the board with 503 points and a favorite for 2012 Fantasy Razzball MVP as he went first overall in 4 out of the 6 drafts (and second overall in Razzball 5, where team My Sports Rumors either missed the draft or didn’t get the league memo as he took Miguel Cabrera first overall). What has Ajax rewarded those early drafters with here in 2012? Just 14 points in 118 at-bats as he hits .322 and is “only” striking out 19% of the time.  Man, he’s gotta get better at being worse!  Confused?  Me too!

And the breakthrough performances through the first month and change? Danny Espinosa leads all players with 165 points as he hits .191 and strikes out 30% of the time, but he was a top 20 player in 2011 and was drafted as early as the 2nd round. The real surprise player in the rankings is Albert Pujols, who was a top-five player until last week and comes in with 119 points in 126 at-bats. Undrafted by anyone not pulling a La Russa and falling asleep at the wheel to autodraft their team, El Hombre is racking up razz points like it’s 1909. He has been picked up by only those with the biggest cojones, as he could quickly go from 2011 Adam Dunn to 2012 Adam Dunn who I guess could go back to 2011 Adam Dunn but is being owned like he’s 2012 Adam Dunn, or unowned or…  Yeah, I’m not sure, but there you have it!

Until next time, keep an eye out for those AAA call-ups and injury replacements and anyone getting playing time with the Minnesota Twins

Fantasy Baseball Blog at Razzball.com

This Mike Rizzo/Bryce Harper/Cole Hamels business has buzzed about the interweb for the last few days, and I feel the need to chime in. Clearly, this woudn't be a story if Cole Hamels had lied, as is the unwritten rule in this situation. If Cole Hamels had lied, there would have been no suspension and no talking heads. 

In this case, baseball is a microcosm for society. Quietly lie and don't ruffle any feathers to get anyone in trouble, and you're all set. Continue along within the preestablished normative framework and you will be spared. Things are this way perhaps because people aren't very good at communicating, and so we attempt to limit the variables of expression and behavior. I love the fact that Hamels told the truth when asked. If you listen to the whole interview with Hamels, he had nothing but great things to say about Harper. Indeed, throwing at Harper's back indicates that Hamels is aware of the historic nature of Harper's talent. 

Harper handled it with class, too. The person who comes off ugly in this exchange is Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, lashing back as if Hamels had beaned his baby boy. Harper might be the baby boy of the Nationals franchise, but to react in the fashion that Rizzo did is expressly infantile. 

As for fantasy, you know the deal with Harper and Hamels. What of the plethora of injured Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies?

Mike Morse, 1B: I wrote a Valentine's Day piece on Mike Morse, encouraging my loving readership to swoon his way. Enter the bitter pill of an injured lat. The latest on Morse has him aiming for an early June return, when the Nationals will begin interleague play, thus allowing Morse to DH. Morse owners will likely be unwilling to part with him at a significant discount, given the waiting game they've been playing, but perhaps he could fill out a larger deal to your advantage. 

Chase Utley, 2B: Utley, unsurprisingly, does not have a timetable for his return. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com quotes Utley: "Once my body tells me it's ready to go 100 percent, that's when I'll go down to Clearwater." Zolecki's article does offer some reason for optimism, however. Zolecki also quotes Utley as saying:

"Being fairly pain-free and not having to think about it is the most important thing. I've built some strength over the past month, and will continue to do that with the things I'm doing. We'll see. I don't want to be a detriment in the field. I want to be ready to rock when the time comes."

Drew Storen, RP: As you know, Storen had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow in April. The latest update on Storen has him "ahead of schedule." What that schedule is, however, remains a mystery, other than vague comments involving a return around the All-Star break. 

Ryan Howard, 1B: Howard has been rehabbing at the Phillies facility in Clearwater, Florida for a week and a half now, and is intensifying his workouts this week. Howard, like Utley, is without a timetable, but did begin taking batting practice on Monday. If Howard is somehow available on your waiver wire, by all means DL him. 

Fantasy Baseball – RotoAuthority.com

We’re barely more than 30 games into the season and yet we’ve already seen a number of high-profile prospects called up from the minors. Bryce Harper has injected some life into the Nationals’ lineup, Mike Trout has been part of the Angels’ outfield shakeup, and Jarrod Parker assumed a spot in the Athletics’ rotation. Will Middlebrooks, Drew Pomeranz, and Wily Peralta have also lended a helping hand following their promotions.

The new collective bargaining agreement moved the Super Two cutoff up just a little bit, so players do not need as much service time to qualify for four years of arbitration as before. Clubs are expected to promote their top prospects a little later than usual because of that, as in early-June rather than mid-to-late May. That hurts baseball and fantasy owners alot, unfortunately. Let’s take a look at baseball’s top prospects in the upper levels of the minors to see when they could break into the show.

Nolan Arenado | 3B | Rockies

Colorado has used three different third baseman this year and none of them have hit, producing a collective .238/.328/.352 batting line on the season. Arenado, 21, was the talk of the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training but he’s only hit one homer this year, resulting in a .299/.368/.410 batting line in 133 Double-A plate appearances. That’s not bad by any means, but you have to figure the Rockies hoped to see a little more after he hit 20 homers last season. Arenado has only played 33 games above Single-A, so he shouldn’t be expecting a call to the big leagues anytime soon.

Trevor Bauer & Tyler Skaggs | SP | Diamondbacks

The D’Backs have already replaced Josh Collmenter with prospect Patrick Corbin, who has allowed seven runs in nine innings across two starts. He’s jut keeping the seat warm for either Bauer or Skaggs. Bauer, 21, has made seven Double-A starts this season, posting an 11.1 K/9 and 1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings. The problem is that he’s walked 5.4 batters per nine, so Arizona could leave him in the minors for a few more weeks to iron out his control. Skaggs, 20, is also in Double-A. He’s pitched to a 3.06 ERA with 12.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 1/3 innings across six starts. It’s worth noting that Bauer is on the team’s 40-man roster but Skaggs is not.

Travis d’Arnaud | C | Blue Jays

There aren’t many times that a .276/.346/.405 batting line could be considered a disappointment, but when a team’s top prospect does that in an extreme hitter’s environment like Triple-A Las Vegas, it’s easy to feel underwhelmed. d’Arnaud, 23, had surgery to repair torn ligaments in his thumb this past offseason, which could be hampering his offense. With J.P. Arencibia producing a .346/.375/.558 batting with five doubles and two homers in his last 16 games following an awful start, the Jays can afford to be patient with their top young prospect.

Matt Harvey | SP | Mets

There may not be a player in this post with an easier path to the big leagues than Harvey. The 23-year-old has a 4.00 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 36 innings across seven Triple-A starts, but his primary competition for a MLB job at the moment is Miguel Batista and the rehabbing/injury prone Chris Young. There’s almost no doubt that Harvey is one of the five best starting pitchers in the Mets’ organization right now, so his biggest obstacle may be his own service time and the Super Two cutoff.

Brett Jackson & Anthony Rizzo | OF & 1B | Cubs

Not much is going right on Chicago’s north side this season, but their two best prospects are giving fans reason to be excited in Triple-A. Jackson, a 23-year-old outfielder, is hitting .246/.350/.443 with three homers in five steals this season while Rizzo, a 22-year-old first baseman, owns a .356/.420/.661 batting line with ten homers. With Bryan LaHair is hitting the snot about of the ball (.384/.476/.767), Jackson’s path to the show is much more clear, especially following the trade of Marlon Byrd. All he has to do is outproduce Tony Campana or wait for Alfonso Soriano to be traded. Rizzo could be stuck waiting a while.

Shelby Miller | SP | Cardinals

Arguably the top right-handed pitching prospect in the minors, the 21-year-old Miller is off to a bit of shaky start in Triple-A: 4.45 ERA with an 11.8 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 in 28 1/3 innings across six starts. He’s also facing an uphill battle because the Cardinals have a pretty strong pitching rotation at the moment, with three starters with a sub-2.10 ERA and four with a sub-3.80 ERA. Their worst starter this year has been Adam Wainwright (5.76 ERA), but he’s not going to lose his job anytime soon. It’ll probably take an injury (or trade) for Miller to crack the rotation in St. Louis in the coming weeks.

Wil Myers | OF | Royals

Myers, 21, has already hit more homers this year (11) than he did all of last year (8), when he battled a knee injury. He’s currently mashing in Double-A, posting a .339/.394/.722 line in 127 plate appearances. It is worth noting that he’s repeating the level, however. Kansas City has gotten very little out of Jeff Francoeur (.252/.308/.333) and a hodge podge of center fielders (.245/.306/.327), so the need at the big league level is there. However, as J.J. Cooper of Baseball America writes, the Royals are likely to take a similar path to the one they took with Mike Moustakas before bringing up Myers. That means some time in Triple-A.

Fantasy Baseball – RotoAuthority.com

We’re barely more than 30 games into the season and yet we’ve already seen a number of high-profile prospects called up from the minors. Bryce Harper has injected some life into the Nationals’ lineup, Mike Trout has been part of the Angels’ outfield shakeup, and Jarrod Parker assumed a spot in the Athletics’ rotation. Will Middlebrooks, Drew Pomeranz, and Wily Peralta have also lended a helping hand following their promotions.

The new collective bargaining agreement moved the Super Two cutoff up just a little bit, so players do not need as much service time to qualify for four years of arbitration as before. Clubs are expected to promote their top prospects a little later than usual because of that, as in early-June rather than mid-to-late May. That hurts baseball and fantasy owners alot, unfortunately. Let’s take a look at baseball’s top prospects in the upper levels of the minors to see when they could break into the show.

Nolan Arenado | 3B | Rockies

Colorado has used three different third baseman this year and none of them have hit, producing a collective .238/.328/.352 batting line on the season. Arenado, 21, was the talk of the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training but he’s only hit one homer this year, resulting in a .299/.368/.410 batting line in 133 Double-A plate appearances. That’s not bad by any means, but you have to figure the Rockies hoped to see a little more after he hit 20 homers last season. Arenado has only played 33 games above Single-A, so he shouldn’t be expecting a call to the big leagues anytime soon.

Trevor Bauer & Tyler Skaggs | SP | Diamondbacks

The D’Backs have already replaced Josh Collmenter with prospect Patrick Corbin, who has allowed seven runs in nine innings across two starts. He’s jut keeping the seat warm for either Bauer or Skaggs. Bauer, 21, has made seven Double-A starts this season, posting an 11.1 K/9 and 1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings. The problem is that he’s walked 5.4 batters per nine, so Arizona could leave him in the minors for a few more weeks to iron out his control. Skaggs, 20, is also in Double-A. He’s pitched to a 3.06 ERA with 12.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 1/3 innings across six starts. It’s worth noting that Bauer is on the team’s 40-man roster but Skaggs is not.

Travis d’Arnaud | C | Blue Jays

There aren’t many times that a .276/.346/.405 batting line could be considered a disappointment, but when a team’s top prospect does that in an extreme hitter’s environment like Triple-A Las Vegas, it’s easy to feel underwhelmed. d’Arnaud, 23, had surgery to repair torn ligaments in his thumb this past offseason, which could be hampering his offense. With J.P. Arencibia producing a .346/.375/.558 batting with five doubles and two homers in his last 16 games following an awful start, the Jays can afford to be patient with their top young prospect.

Matt Harvey | SP | Mets

There may not be a player in this post with an easier path to the big leagues than Harvey. The 23-year-old has a 4.00 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 36 innings across seven Triple-A starts, but his primary competition for a MLB job at the moment is Miguel Batista and the rehabbing/injury prone Chris Young. There’s almost no doubt that Harvey is one of the five best starting pitchers in the Mets’ organization right now, so his biggest obstacle may be his own service time and the Super Two cutoff.

Brett Jackson & Anthony Rizzo | OF & 1B | Cubs

Not much is going right on Chicago’s north side this season, but their two best prospects are giving fans reason to be excited in Triple-A. Jackson, a 23-year-old outfielder, is hitting .246/.350/.443 with three homers in five steals this season while Rizzo, a 22-year-old first baseman, owns a .356/.420/.661 batting line with ten homers. With Bryan LaHair is hitting the snot about of the ball (.384/.476/.767), Jackson’s path to the show is much more clear, especially following the trade of Marlon Byrd. All he has to do is outproduce Tony Campana or wait for Alfonso Soriano to be traded. Rizzo could be stuck waiting a while.

Shelby Miller | SP | Cardinals

Arguably the top right-handed pitching prospect in the minors, the 21-year-old Miller is off to a bit of shaky start in Triple-A: 4.45 ERA with an 11.8 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 in 28 1/3 innings across six starts. He’s also facing an uphill battle because the Cardinals have a pretty strong pitching rotation at the moment, with three starters with a sub-2.10 ERA and four with a sub-3.80 ERA. Their worst starter this year has been Adam Wainwright (5.76 ERA), but he’s not going to lose his job anytime soon. It’ll probably take an injury (or trade) for Miller to crack the rotation in St. Louis in the coming weeks.

Wil Myers | OF | Royals

Myers, 21, has already hit more homers this year (11) than he did all of last year (8), when he battled a knee injury. He’s currently mashing in Double-A, posting a .339/.394/.722 line in 127 plate appearances. It is worth noting that he’s repeating the level, however. Kansas City has gotten very little out of Jeff Francoeur (.252/.308/.333) and a hodge podge of center fielders (.245/.306/.327), so the need at the big league level is there. However, as J.J. Cooper of Baseball America writes, the Royals are likely to take a similar path to the one they took with Mike Moustakas before bringing up Myers. That means some time in Triple-A.

Fantasy Baseball – RotoAuthority.com

Joining Rudy and I this week is Jimmy Pardo, he’s a baseball fan and the comedian who opens for Conan O’Brien every night of the week.  Not like that!  I mean he warms up the crowd.  Not like that!  Wait, how were you taking that?  Eh, not important.  If you want to do yourself an outside-of-the-bathroom-type solid, download Pardo’s podcast, Never Not Funny.  It’ll make you laugh or he’ll refund your money (it’s free).  Or you can check out him pitching to Justin Verlander.  He throws like a girl.  A very butchy girl who would kick your butt in anything athletic.  Anyway, here’s the Razzball Podcast, now with extra cackles from me:

Download from iTunes

Download directly the Razzball Podcast.

Fantasy Baseball Blog at Razzball.com