Baseball fans already know about Kate Upton. She appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated and followed that up by making commercials with Justin Verlander for MLB2012.
Now, Kate Upton (no relation to Justin or B.J.) is in the news again with this video that was banned by YouTube, then after it was moved to Vimeo, YouTube decided to put it back on its site.
Last week's edition of Stock Watch recommended Pedro Alvarez as a buy candidate showing signs of a hot streak. Alvarez has certainly justified the buy this week and is now one of the hottest players in fantasy baseball. Hopefully some of these recommendations will also pay immediate dividends:
Buy
Sell
We're one month in, and Matt Kemp is having a Barry Bonds-steroid-era type start to the season. His home run-to-fly ball rate is an impossible 60%. I do not have him on any teams.
In fact, after his 2010, I traded him to my archnemesis in a no-limit keeper league. That archnemesis's name is Jim. Perhaps you, too, are fated with a Jim. I'd like to dedicate this post, then, to the Jims of fantasy baseball leagues everywhere: Jims, may your star players all discover the intricate metaphysics of Scientology and leave baseball to follow the teachings of L. Ron Hubbard. Speaking of which, have you ever heard of Operation Snow White, the largest infiltration of the United States Government in history?
April was cruel indeed. But we have five more months!
Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday on Kemp's April over at FanGraphs; check it. Kemp's video-game start had me curious about the home run-to-fly ball leaders in April. Astonishingly, three of the five hitters following Kemp are catchers:
Curtis Granderson: 36.4%
Josh Hamilton: 36.0%
Buster Posey: 33.3%
Mike Napoli: 33.3%
Matt Wieters: 31.6%
And Carlos Santana is at 23.1%. Sadly, none of these catchers are on any of my teams. Granderson's splits were impressive: 32.2% line drives, 30.5% ground balls, and 36.4% fly balls, yet only a .275 BABIP. Teams are shifting on Granderson and turning those line drives into outs. Still, he appears poised for a near repeat of his MVP-caliber 2011.
Other interesting names near the top of the home run-to-fly ball leaderboard in April:
Adam Dunn, 25.0%: After a lost 2011 that saw Dunn's rate drop to a 9.6%, the old Dunn is back. His strikeout percentage was an alarming 35.8% in April, however, and not even an old Dunn season is sustainable at that rate. Let's see if he can bring it down to 30% in May.
Alex Rodriguez, 23.5%: A-Rod's display of home run power in April should be an obvious sign of good things to come. His disturbingly high ground ball rate from 2011 (48.6%) ballooned to 54.5%, however, resulting in a measly fly ball rate of 25.8%. Rodriguez has to lift more balls skyward before we see a 30-home run season.
Dexter Fowler, 22.2%: In 1,613 career plate appearances prior to the 2012 season, Dexter Fowler had 15 home runs. In 81 April plate appearances, Fowler had four home runs. Granted, all four home runs have been at Coors, but if Fowler is on your waiver wire and you have some flexibility, pick him up and see what May brings.
Lastly, an addendum to yesterday's post from esteemed colleague Dan Manella: keep your eyes on Scott Maine, of the Chicago Cubs bullpen. Carlos Marmol has been atrocious so far for the Cubs. Kerry Wood returns tomorrow, yet, per a Chicago Tribune report on Monday, Wood's role is likely to change. In the article, Paul Sullivan assumes that Rafael Dolis will enter the setup role should Wood vacate it, but Maine has been electric since his April 20 call up. Maine already leapfrogged Shawn Camp, and if he continues to dominate, he could pass Dolis and his 2-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Heath Bell is giving out two run innings like he’s Daryl Hannah giving out crazy vibes. Yesterday, was the fourth time in 8 appearances this year he’s allowed 2 runs. His WHIP (2.70) looks like an ERA, his ERA looks a perfect score from a corrupt figure skater judge (10.80) and the Red Sox are wondering if he can be their closer. At some point, Bell should be replaced as closer, and, with the way he’s been pitching, that point was about three weeks ago. Astute Razzball reader, “Is Cishek or Mujica the replacement?” I thought you were the astute one. Mujica looks to be the set-up man, but I think Cishek gets first crack. It’s called a hunch, like how Guy Fieri eats a sandwich. As of right now, I wouldn’t drop Bell, but I also wouldn’t put him in my active roster. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Juan Carlos Oviedo – MLB suspended Juan Carlos Ovideo (Leo Nunez) for eight weeks for using a fake identity. No plan to suspend Heath Bell for impersonating Kevin Gregg. In his time off, Leo the Lyin’ plans on snorkeling through Atlantis, talking to his giant rabbit Harvey and hunting Sasquatch.
Yu Darvish – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks. Looking like a true sterling Darvish.
Evan Longoria – Left yesterday’s game with a knee injury after trying to steal 2nd. The Rays are calling it “knee soreness.” I’m calling it “it better be just soreness.”
Miguel Olivo – Homered, but whatever he also left yesterday’s game because his groin got injury duty, leaving the M’s summonsing Montero (who also homered)! Olivo’s headed to the 15-day DL, so guess who will get 10 games played at catcher just a tad quicker now? Hey, I’m smiling. That feels weird.
Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3 with his 8th homer and 4th game in a row with one. His hot hitting has my heart stopped…. captured…. arrested… It’s a case of Edwin Incarceration.
Allen Craig – Look at Allen Craig strutting around with two first names while R. Kelly’s only got an initial. Craig is set to return from the DL. Probably won’t play 2nd base, but whatever, that’s real baseball talk. He’s eligible there in most fantasy leagues. He could get teen homers and a handful of steals with everyday playing time, which he should have.
Kyle Drabek – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks, as he lowers his ERA to 2.40 while striking out nearly a batter per inning. I’ve told just about anyone who’s asked in the comments that they should pick up Drabek, friend.
Brad Lidge – He’s gonna miss May with hernia surgery. So he went from Vertigo to Nads on a Strain.
Tom Milone – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER in Fenway. Eh, even in our deep leagues we benched Milone here. Don’t hate the playa (not Spanish for beach), hate the game.
Kevin Youkilis – Was scratched with a sore back. Weird, that usually happens to me with an itchy back.
David Ortiz – 2-for-3 with his 5th and 6th homers as he bats .405 with 20 RBIs. Of course I should’ve just drafted Ortiz in the 2nd round instead of Giancarlo Stanton. I will now lock myself in my cry closet.
Jason Hammel – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks. His ERA is now at 1.97. Good thing Matusz was the Orioles starter to watch coming out of Spring Training. Sideways emoticon with an elbow nudge.
Ryan Braun – 3 homers in Petco with the 2nd one being airmailed, but it still counted.
David Robertson – 1 IP, 3 Ks. K-Rob’s ERA is 0.00 and WHIP is 0.91, having allowed 7 baserunners in 11 IP to go with his 18 Ks. He’s owned in 12% of ESPN leagues and he’s headed for a better year than probably at least two of the starters on your fantasy team.
Patrick Corbin – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 6 Ks. Isn’t this Patrick Corbin guy the one Carrie bides her time with while she waits for Mr. Big to come to his senses? She looks like a horse; horses are hot; what else do you need, Mr. Big? Any the hoo! In mixed leagues, wake me when Trevor Bauer’s called up. Or even Tyler Skaggs. Or Boz Scaggs.
Justin Upton – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer and the Desmond Jennings Special, a slam & legs. Call a fireplace cause Upton looks like he’s starting to swing some hot lumber! Can someone give me an AM radio-style bassoon, triangle, horn?
Paul Goldschmidt – 1-for-3 with a steal as he bats .193 and hit cleanup. Pretty appropriate since he’s been dirtying fantasy lineups all year.
Justin Morneau – Left yesterday’s game with a sore wrist. This Justin, Morneau’s an injury waiting to happen.
Bryan LaHair – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 5th homer. For those who are like, “LaWhere did this come from?” He hit 38 homers last year in the PCL. Granted the PCL fills their baseballs with helium, but he’s still got power to spare.
Tony Campana – 0-for-4 with a run and a steal. When he’s in the dugout, the Cubs hang him from a coat hanger and his legs continue to run.
Matt Kemp – Hit his 12th homer yesterday. The Padres collectively have 11, Cubs have 8 and Infante has 5.
Juan Nicasio – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks. That looks about right for the line you can expect from Nicasio. Maybe a touch more K and a tad less LOB.
Vance Worley – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks as he was done wrong by his bullpen that gave up his win. He’s probably suffering from Münchausen Syndrome because of the rest of the starters in the majors.
Pedro Alvarez – 1-for-4 with his 5th homer. Fine, I picked him up. I had was a gaping hole left by Zimmerman, so, with a heavy heart, I went back to the Pedro Alvarez well. The worst thing that could’ve happened was I ended up ignoring Alvarez this year because of how burnt I got last year. The 2nd worst thing that could happen is I get burnt again this year. Yay.
James McDonald – 7 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 10 Ks. There’s the old (once-hyped) McDonald. Has now strung together back-to-back solid starts with excellent Ks. I don’t think he’s going to be without his hiccups.
Mike Minor – 6 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 11 baserunners, 9 Ks. Speaking of hiccups, looking at Minor’s start would cure his owners of them. I’m guessing with 11 baserunners, seven earned and 9 Ks through 6 and a third, he was pretty unlucky. Too bad I don’t play in any FIPpin’ leagues that care about luck.
Delmon Young – Suspended for 7 days after an incident where he was allegedly yelling anti-Semitic remarks. Delmon said he was just playing Words With Friends.
To the Moms who were there for all of us. To the Moms that drove us to every game. To the Moms who took care of our injuries and consoled us on our defeats. To the Moms that cheered for us. To the Moms that were our biggest fans.
I love you Mom.
Are you two-start pitcher streaming? If not, you’re likely missing out on a great opportunity to increase your weekly strikeout total, win total, log more innings pitched, and potentially lower your team ERA and WHIP in head to head leagues that allow daily lineup changes.
Some leagues don’t allow such activity by limiting the number of player adds you can make each week. However, if you can find a loophole in your league settings and add/drop pitchers all season long – you’re going to have a great chance to win the whole thing come September!
For the fifth consecutive season, we will be tracking two start pitchers to make sure you always win your pitching categories. That way, if you consistently lose strikeouts each week – you can find someone who can help you in that category in a double capacity right away.
Fantasy Baseball Dugout’s exclusive two start pitcher rankings for 2012 Fantasy Baseball Week 5 start AFTER the jump!
Below you will find each projected two start pitcher for fantasy baseball week 5 broken down into four categories – must start, would start, could start, and don’t start.
See a ranking you disagree with? Let us know in the comments below!
Here’s some bargain basements pickups for National League teams. These are guys that are likely available in deep NL-only leagues that show some promise (well at least a little) and might be worthy of a flyer on a free agent pickup.
SPEED KILLS: Eric Young Jr. won't help you in many categories, except stolen bases, but he's worth it in deep NL-only leagues.
Eric Young, Jr., OF, Colorado Rockies — All Eric Young Jr. will do for you is steal bases, but he’s actually quite good at it. He has 4 SB’s already this year and amassed 27 in just 77 games last year.
Chris Johnson, 3B, Houston Astros — Johnson is starting every day for the Astros at third. He doesn’t anything very well for fantasy, but he is hitting .273 on the year so he won’t hurt you at the plate if injury forces him into your lineup at the corner position.
Ruben Tejada, SS, New York Mets — With the emergence of Kirk Nieuwenheis, Ruben Tejada is likely destined for the difficult 8 hole in the lineup. That won’t help his production and he won’t help you a lot with power or steals, but he is playing every day for the Mets and can be a solid backup middle infield replacement.
Brian Bogusevic, OF, Houston Astros — Brian Bogusevic is hitting just .213 on the season, but we like his 3 SB’s. Bogusevic stole 20 last year in just 58 games in Triple-A. He’s going to have to do more to get value in mixed leagues, but for NL-only leagues, he has some backup potential and will likely remain in the Houston lineup.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, New York Mets — An injury replacement, Nieuwehuis is hitting leadoff and doing the job with a .323 average and 2 homers and 1 SB. With Andres Torres returning to the lineup, Nieuwehuis will likely just move over to LF and replace Jason Bay who is injured and continues to struggle. Torres has a history of injuries so we expect Nieuwehuis to pick up 400 AB’s this season.
Tyler Colvin, OF, Colorado Rockies — Tyler Colvin will kill your batting. He’s a .219 career hitter who hit .150 last year. But, he will help you with power; he clouted 20 for the Cubs two years ago. What better place for a power hitter than Colorado?
Rick Ankiel, OF, Washington Nationals — Rick Ankiel is getting the starts against right-handers while being platooned with Roger Bernardina. The Nationals, however, have got to be getting a little tired of Bernardina’s lack of production, although manager Davey Johnson has said that he has not lost confidence in Bernardina. Expect Ankiel to get increased playing time.
George Kottaras, C, Milwaukee Brewers — What do you look for in a backup catcher? Power. George Kottaras has popped 3 homeruns in just 19 AB’s this season.
Skip Schumacher, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals — Skip Schumacher started the season on the DL and came off of it on April 20. Since then, he has hit safely for four straight games. While he’s never been much of a power threat, his .346 career on-base percentage makes him potentially useful at second base in deeper NL leagues. He’s also versatile and can likely qualify at infield and outfield positions for you.
Lucas Harrell, SP, Houston Astros– Lucas Harrell had a 2.63 ERA last year in the minors and is slotted in the #2 starter position in Houston. While the Astros won’t get a lot of wins, Harrell could be used in a streaming situation for your rotation.
HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PITCHER: Lucas Harrell is the #2 starter in Houston. Used wisely when streaming starting pitchers, Harrell could be a good investment.
Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco Giants — Didn’t think I’d ever have Barry Zito on any pick up lists, but the most overpaid southpaw in baseball history is off to a great start. Zito is at 1.67/0.93 in his 4 starts this season and is holding opponents to a .186 batting average! Given how he’s burned so many fantasy owners in the past, he’s likely available in your league. Maybe it’s a tip of the cap to new hot wife Amber Seyer Zito)
James McDonald, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates — James McDonald lost a no-hit bid in the seventh against the Rockies this week and then picked up the tough luck loss after giving up just one earned run. McDonald makes for a fine start on April 30 in Atlanta, but wins will continue to be hard to come by as long as the Pittsburgh offense continues to struggle. He’s at 2.78/1.01 on the year and is holding opponents to a .184 average.
Anthony Bass, SP, San Diego Padres — With Dustin Moseley possibly out for the season, Anthony Bass will have a chance to stick in San Diego’s rotation. He strengthened his case by having the best start of his Major League career, blanking the Phillies and striking out more than a batter an inning. Bass needs to bring his walk total down, but he’s a solid 2.33/1.14 on the year and is holding opponents to a .179 average.
Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals — The 24-year-old rotation replacement for Chris Carpenter is 4-0 and has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his four starts. Lance Lynn now sports a microscopic 1.33 ERA and 0.81 WHIP on the season. The Cardinals are going to have a hard time moving him back to the pen if he keeps this up. Start him with confidence as he faces the Pirates next time out.
Randall Delgado, SP, Atlanta Braves — Jair Jurrjens was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett earlier this week, thus keeping Randall Delgado in the rotation, at least until Tim Hudson returns. Delgado has not got off to a great start, but showed potential last year (2.83/1.23 in 35 IP).
Kyle Kendrick, SP, Philadelphia Phillies — Kyle Kendrick (husband of Baseball Hot Wife nominee Stephenie Lagrossa) slots into the #5 starter role in Philadelphia while Cliff Lee recovers. Kendrick won’t help your WHIP numbers and his strikeout ratio is horrible, but he plays on a good team and has won 19 games over the past 2 seasons.
Click below to read a transcript of today's live chat with Steve Adams!
I would have published this sooner, but with three lefties coming up, my editor pulled me in favor of a LOOGY …
Blue Jays
I said last week I wasn't all that concerned about Sergio Santos' sluggish start — unless it was on account of an injury, which we would have had no way of knowing. Sure enough, the flame-throwing right-hander hit the DL late on Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation.
Am I worried now? I'd be lying if I said I wasn't. I don't own Santos in either of my leagues, but that wasn't by design; I like him quite a lot and expected him to have a strong season. Now, however, things are murky. The Jays say the ailment is not serious, and I suppose there's no reason not to take them at face value, but … it's still an arm injury.
Meanwhile, Francisco Cordero has been named closer in Santos' absence. I'm no fan of Cordero's, but I was able to snatch him up when news broke of Santos' injury, and I suggest you do the same if you still can. I'll be gritting my teeth through his save opps (including Sunday's underwhelming performance), but saves are saves, and I need 'em in my primary league.
I fully expect Cordero to cede the job back to Santos when the latter is ready to to return, but I'm not assuming Santos will necessarily be back right away, either. Santos owners are frustrated, I'm sure, but your only option is to sit tight for now and stash him on your DL.
Red Sox
Smart money had reliever-turned-starter Daniel Bard returning to Boston's bullpen at some point this season, but I'm not sure anyone thought it would happen this soon. Then again, who could have foreseen things going as poorly as they have so far?
The trouble, for our purposes, is that the Red Sox are calling this a temporary move; Bard will only be available in relief while one of his turns in the starting rotation is skipped. Further complicating matters, they've also been cagey as to exactly what role he will fill during this cameo. If it all sounds unusual to you, that's because it is.
I was able to read the tea leaves and nabbed Bard before the announcement was made, but now I'm feeling like I may be stuck with Louis Friend. Will he remain in the bullpen for the long-term? Will he close if so? Well, now that I've completely revealed my bias, I don't mind saying that I hope so, but Bobby Valentine said Monday he doesn't think there's a strong temptation to move Bard back to the 'pen permanently. Why he phrased it in such a creepy way, I can't say, but the point comes across.
This situation is a mess. I'm going to hold onto Bard because I'm needy for saves, and Bard's upside as a closer is pretty big, but if you're in any better standing, you can safely pass.
Nationals
In case you missed it last week, Drew Storen is out for an undefined period of time after undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. Washington hopes to have Storen back before the All-Star break, but in the meanwhile, Henry Rodriguez and Brad Lidge will share closing duties.
That's a double helping of ugh.
H-Rod's surface numbers look great right now, while Lidge's do not, but don't be fooled: both options are underwhelming. The right-handers should be owned, because saves are saves, but neither of these guys is going to provide long-term surplus value, and the fact that they're cast in a platoon only further diminishes their already dubious contributions. These remains are better left for the saves bottomfeeders in your league.
Storen, obviously, is a strong undisputed DL stash. You can take a risk on dropping him outright — and there's a decent enough chance that he washes out completely that it wouldn't be insane from the perspective of lost stats — but someone will snatch him off your wire with the quickness.
Two weeks into the baseball season and already tons to discuss. I always state that at this early juncture the sample size is too small to make meaningful conclusions, i.e look at Josh Willingham’s .419/.514/.871 stat line.
Having said that, my friends usually don’t miss an opportunity to harp on me and state that they are still putting up these numbers, no matter if they’ve only had 30 at-bats. So going in this direction, I will discuss some of the big standouts from the first two weeks of the baseball season, even if the sample size is too small.
Looks like Kemp is wasting no time attempting to fulfill his prediction of a 50/50 season. He is the driving force behind the Dodgers 9-1 record, mashing six balls out of the park. On the steals front he only has one but that is largely due to the fact that 9 of his 19 hits have been for extra bases. He is hitting .487 with an OPS of 1.549 on the young season; even if he hits half as well for the remainder of the season, the Dodgers could turn some heads in the NL West.
Kemp is drilling the ball, there is no doubt about it, but he has done it against some of the easiest competition possible, the Padres, Pirates and Padres again. It’ll be interesting to see how Kemp does in the near future, but for now he is a top fantasy player and as close to untouchable as you can get. Kemp is a player that is supposed to do well, now lets look at players who are outperforming their career averages and may have gained some trade value.
3 More April All-Stars AFTER the jump!
Young is a career .241 hitter and never batted higher than .257, but this year has started out on a .364 clip. Obviously expect regression, which is why now is a good time to put him on the trading block. For fantasy managers who are resistant to the idea, it is possible this year he could be righting the ship. He is 28 years old, coming into his prime and to start the season has walked 6 times compared to 5 strikeouts. Which is definitely a good sign for a player who strikes out 150 times a season.
Infante seems destined to pick up the slack of slumping teaming Giancarlo (formerly known as Mike) Stanton. Infante has hit four homers to date… His home run totals for the past five years (starting in 07’) are: 2, 3, 2, 8, 7. I doubt he will keep up what he is on pace to do but that is me being a fan of small sample size again. He could hit 72 homers, which is what he is on pace to do.
Encarnacion has exceled this year hitting in the middle of the Jays lineup. EE a notoriously streaky hitter has put a good start to what hopes to be a promising season. His slash looks good: .289/.325/.632 and it is not too inflated, except that slugging. Critics love to rag on EE’s underutilization of power, which most believe to be mid-to-high 20’s. Last year he had only 17 homers, but Jays fans will be hoping for near 30 this year, and with his start one can hope.
All fantasy managers will have different valuations for these players, but if you think that they are overvalued by your league, then why not attempt to get something more sustainable in return. If you think they are going to stay on the same course as they’ve started out, then you are in for a very nice year.
