Stop me if you’ve heard this one. Sometimes, projecting the next breakout receiver is as simple as looking at last year’s passing target statistics.
What’s that? You don’t really compare year-to-year target statistics? Well, you should.
Take the case of Terrell Owens. The former Cowboy was leaving Dallas behind after the 2008 season, and without the team’s leading receiver, there were 140 targets in that offense to be divvied up. Some were inevitably going to Roy Williams and Jason Witten, but even so, some unheralded player was going to see a ton of looks in 2009.
Enter Miles Austin. After doing nothing in the first three games of the season, receiving only four targets on offense, Austin burst out over the season’s remaining 13 games, earning 120 targets for a per game average of 9.23 targets. As you know, Austin translated those 124 targets into 81 catches for 1,320 yards and 11 TDs. Yes, it can be that simple.